Who Will Win?

As many of my “regulars” have discovered, I tend to share various articles and comments that I find interesting, timely, upsetting … or even questionable.

And here I am doing it again. 😎

I’m not a regular reader or participant of Quora, but I do get daily emails that include a listing of topics in which I’ve indicated an interest. Of course politics is one of them. 😉

Anyway, in today’s listing was the following question:  “Who will win the United States presidential 2020 election?” Naturally, no one can provide an irrefutable answer but I found the response provided by a person named Spencer Alexander McDaniel was worth thinking about so I’ve copied his answer here.

I think that it is impossible to say with any degree of certainty who will win 2020 United States presidential election at this point, but I predict that, regardless of who ultimately wins, the election will be extremely close. I do not think that anyone is going to win anything resembling a landslide victory and I think that the result of the election will come down to a small handful of important swing states.

I think it is entirely possible that we may see essentially a repeat of the 2016 election in which the Democratic candidate wins the popular vote and Donald Trump wins the electoral college. I am not saying that is what will happen, but I do think it is a possibility.

Donald Trump has four massive advantages that give him a huge edge over anyone who tries to confront him:

  • Trump is an incumbent. There is a very strong established tendency for Americans to favor incumbents over challengers. The last time an incumbent president lost a bid for reelection was in 1992 when Bill Clinton defeated incumbent president George H. W. Bush. That was twenty-seven years ago. If the Democratic challenger defeats Donald Trump in the 2020 election, it will quite literally be an event that has not happened in over a generation.
  • The economy has not crashed (or at least not yet). Many independents decide who to vote for based solely on the economy. Since the economy is doing ok right now, that means Trump is pretty much guaranteed to win votes from people who vote based solely on the economy.
  • Trump is a Republican. The way our political system works gives a massively disproportionate advantage to Republicans in the electoral college. Because Democrats tend to live in cities and Republicans tend to live in rural areas and the electoral college tends to give greater power to predominately rural states with low populations, Republicans naturally have an advantage over Democrats automatically.
  • Trump has the extraordinarily effective full-time propaganda juggernaut that is Fox News to back him up. Fox News can spin any news story to make Trump look good. Since most conservatives only get their news from Fox, no matter what Trump says or does, they will always think well of him. Even if you don’t watch Fox yourself, Fox still has massive influence over the news stories you are exposed to, because mainstream news outlets feel pressure to cover the stories that Fox News is covering, even if they are not really newsworthy, just because Fox is covering those stories and mainstream news outlets are worried that they will look “biased” if they do not cover them.

If Donald Trump were any normal president with these advantages, he would easily win the 2020 election, perhaps with even a landslide victory. Donald Trump, however, is not any normal president; he keeps saying and doing unbelievably stupid and immoral things and he has record-low approval ratings.

ABOVE: Photograph of our grouchy orange president, bloviating as usual

I think that, regardless of who the Democratic candidate ultimately ends up being, they will probably have a chance at beating Donald Trump. Nevertheless, beating Trump will certainly not be easy by any means. The Democratic candidate will have to put on an extremely good campaign and they will have to be able to successfully present themself as a reasonable, intelligent, and moderate antidote to Trump’s swirling cyclone of chaos, stupidity, and right-wing radicalism.

Obviously, this will be an extremely challenging thing for any candidate to do, especially since Fox News is guaranteed to vilify whoever it is that gets the Democratic nomination as the Antichrist and the illegitimate spawn of Satan and Stalin. Naturally, Fox News’s hysterical calumnies will make it into the mainstream press and greatly shape public opinion of the Democratic candidate so that even many moderates who hate Trump will be convinced that he is the lesser of two evils.

Overall, I think that, at this point, the chances of Donald Trump winning and the chances of the Democratic candidate winning are split roughly even. The election really could go either way. On the one hand, Trump has huge advantages over all the Democratic frontrunners, but, on the other hand, he is—quite frankly—a semi-literate, delusional, narcissistic buffoon with no moral compass who somehow always manages to turn even what should be a triumphant moment for himself into a humiliation.

Personally, my favorite candidate is Pete Buttigieg, who seems to me like not only the exact opposite of Trump but also like someone who would at least stand a decent chance against Trump. Nonetheless, I am all too aware that my own affinity towards him may be just because I happen to be a young, white male, moderate liberal from northern Indiana with intellectual predilections and a deep love for arts and literature. Thus, consequently, Buttigieg reminds me quite a bit of myself. I recognize that, if I came from a different background, I might not find him so appealing.

And, yes, I know lots of people have an intense and mostly irrational antipathy towards Buttigieg and I’m sure people will hate me too for even saying I like him, but, personally, I think he is the best candidate out of the mix. I will admit that don’t honestly expect him to get the Democratic nomination, even though I think he would make a good general election candidate. Ultimately, I’ll end up voting for whoever the Democratic candidate is in the general election, but, right now, he’s the one I’m planning on voting for in the primary.

ABOVE: Photograph of Pete Buttigieg. Look, I know lots of people hate him, but, right now, he’s who I’m planning on voting for in the primary.

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NOTE: Normally, I would have simply linked to the answer but as I said, I’m not much of a Quora user so this is the best I could do.

P.S. I’m also a fan of Pete. 😊

Biden for President?

I recently came across this quote as part of an article title — “Joe Biden inspires no one” — and I must say I agree.

Yes, I know. He’s the most likely candidate to put Trump out to pasture, but I have real concerns about replacing one oldster with another one … that’s even older!

What I find rather interesting is that much of Biden’s support is simply because he’s familiar. People seem to forget his previous attempts at the presidency … or why he lost. They tend to overlook that he’s waffled on some of his platforms, and has had little to nothing to say about many of the critical issues facing us today. Instead, their primary focus is on booting Trump out of office. (While this is certainly a noble cause, it’s also important to know the objectives of his potential replacement.)

I will admit there’s something to be said for the fact Biden supports Democratic values and viewpoints, along with having experience and maturity, but I’m not sure that’s enough to sway me.

(Some have said Biden is simply Hillary Clinton 2.0. And in some ways, I don’t think that’s too far off.)

Interestingly, while the media continues to paint Biden as the inevitable 2020 candidate, there’s been some rumblings the grassroots enthusiasm for him may be receding. And I, for one, am not too disappointed at this news.

Who am I rooting for? At this point, I really like Pete Buttigieg, even though I recognize his election chances are slim. I don’t care for Sanders as I think he’s too focused on one issue (plus, I would hate to watch him deliver a State of the Union message with all his arm-waving).

Of course it would be great if Elizabeth Warren stepped into the Oval Office. Allowing a woman to run this country for a change would definitely shake things up (read: improve). I may not support all of her platform, but I can’t help supporting her gender. 🥰

Bottom line. When voting time rolls around, I’m going to vote for the person whose name is on my ballot. If it ends up being Joe Biden, then so be it. That’s where my “X” will go. We simply CANNOT allow Trump to run this country into the ground any longer!

And I have a hunch most of my readers feel the same.

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P.S. Just curious … how many of you donate to political candidates?

Biden For President? Maybe Not

I just received the following in my email. It’s from Justice Democrats so some of you may have also read it. Nevertheless, for those who haven’t, I think there’s some merit to the message. Do you agree?

Today Joe Biden made yet another decision he’ll likely regret.

Each and every day, we are faced with the divide-and-conquer politics that Trump has wrought upon our nation. From selling off political offices to corporate millionaires to scapegoating immigrants and putting kids in cages, the last two years have been a constant struggle for the soul of our nation.

In 2016, the old guard of the Democratic Party failed to stop Trump, and they can’t be counted on to lead the fight against him. The party needs new leadership with a bold vision capable of energizing voters in the Democratic base who stayed home in 2016.

While we’re going to support whoever the Democratic nominee is in 2020, we can’t let a so-called ‘centrist’ like Joe Biden divide the Democratic Party and turn it into the party of ‘No, we can’t.’

Joe Biden stands in near complete opposition to where the center of energy is in the Democratic Party today. Democrats are increasingly uniting around progressive populist policies like Medicare for All, a Green New Deal, free college, rejecting corporate money, and ending mass incarceration and deportation.

We don’t need someone who voted for the Iraq War, for mass incarceration, and for the bankruptcy bill while voting against gay marriage, reproductive rights, and school desegregation.

The time for Joe Biden has passed.

2020 Democratic Candidates

I just read a rather fascinating article in The Guardian related to the 2020 Democratic lineup for POTUS.

As I’ve been hearing about the various individuals who have entered the race, I’ve been a bit puzzled because many of them are totally unfamiliar to me. I couldn’t help but wonder if they truly expected to win since they were such an “unknown.” (And from what I’ve read, even more are considering entering the fray.)

The article addresses my question and explains that not all of the candidates are actually hoping to be elected. For some of them, winning isn’t the end game. In other words, they are “running for president without running for president.”

While we’re on the subject … do you have one or more early favorites? Also are you willing to “predict” who might end up as the Democratic nominee? (No pressure … just for fun.)

It’s Never Going to Work

I’m going to begin this post by reiterating my stance on faith … I am not a believer. I left Christianity nearly 20 years ago and have not regretted my decision for one single moment.

Now, having said that, I want to share something that Gronda Morin wrote in one of her latest posts. In it, she talks about how Pete Buttigieg, a 2020 Democratic candidate for POTUS, has hit a nerve with the GOP by (gasp!) talking about religion.

To hear the right talk, one would think that there’s not a religious left. But there is and this has always been the case. The difference is that democrats are believers in the concept of the separation of religion and government. Then the religious left do not require that every person of faith think alike. In general they’re respectful of others practicing the dictates of their faith as long as they don’t impose their beliefs on those who aren’t of like minds. Many have left religion institutions behind because they aren’t impressed with those who claim the Christian mantel and who can blame them. Just watching White Evangelicals supporting a morally bankrupt, racist leaning president would send most sane would be Christians running in the opposite direction. But most Democrats do self -identify as being Christians.

Democrats become politically active around issues to lift peoples up, to protect their rights, to correct an injustice which is how they display their moral values.

IMO, it’s unfortunate that religion plays any part in politics. Yet there’s no argument that it does. A very MAJOR part, in fact. Particularly when Republicans are the ruling party. For them, religious issues become front and center in determining how people in this nation should live. And there can be no argument. It must be their way or no way.

Democrats, on the other hand (as Gronda points out), take a different stance. They believe religion should stand on its own. In other words, if you want to practice your religious faith, you are totally and absolutely free to do so. In fact, this is even written into the Constitution. However, attempts to impose your religious beliefs on others is a line that is not be crossed.

If we’re honest, none of us likes being told how to live our lives. It doesn’t matter which side of the fence you’re on. This is the primary reason problems arise in relationships … and society. One side insists the other side live by their rules.

It’s never going to work.

Yet we know there are those on the Republican (religious) side who are going to do their damndest to tear down anyone who doesn’t meet their criteria.

For everyone’s sake, I hope they fail.