Part Two: The Lockdown

Nan Coronavirus, , ,

As I addressed in Part One, many people in the U.S. took heed of the precautions that were issued at the beginning of the coronavirus spread and obeyed the social distancing pleas. They stocked up on food and supplies and settled into somewhat of a routine within their households to get through the forced seclusion.

Now let’s imagine that the pandemic has gotten so bad that it’s become necessary for authorities to step in to ensure residents obey the movement restrictions. What happens now to the people who ignored the warnings? Who believed that it was all a Democratic hoax? Who were convinced they were invincible? Who believed their god would keep them safe?

And especially … who made no efforts to plan for the worst?

Someone once said, “Never underestimate desperate people. You never know how far they will go to get what they want.”

I’m not going to go into detail as to the events that could potentially take place if this pandemic continues except to reference the above quote … and to repeat something I wrote in Part One: “Gun and ammunition sales have skyrocketed.”

I’ll let you put two and two together.

At this moment in time … in the day and hour that I’m writing this … COVID-19 is rapidly spreading and the number of deaths are increasing daily. If the health professionals are correct (and there is little reason to doubt them), it’s going to get worse.

Never underestimate the driving force to stay alive
that exists in every human being.

70 thoughts on “Part Two: The Lockdown”

  1. The situation is definitely not good. The US currently has one of the highest rates of infection, and doesn’t appear to be slowing down significantly. On top of that we have officials that took their sweet time before they even bothered to considered that this virus could be serious.

    It’s unfortunate that many people will pay for the incompetence of (largely) Republican leaders with their lives.

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  2. ,Im seeing people doing what they should, above and beyond, often, what the authorities tell them. Im on RtD on Disqus, and it seems that there is little to no opposition to any of the sensible suggestions from anyone. Several people are involved with churches, either directly or indirectly, and nearly all of them are aware of the dangers of nervous pastors and priests, telling their flocks to gather close while Daddy comforts you.
    They ain’t havin’ any.

    It does seem that while some states, notably in the south, are basically ignoring the mandates, the larger states like NY and California are closing themselves up tight. As is Ohio. Canada has shut the gates. Here in the Northeast we have had some cases, but nothing to suggest that Stupid has arrived. We are sensible shoes up here, and while there will always be someone who knows more than anyone else about this stuff (I think of them as the “twigs and berries and soothing syrup” crowd), for the most part we’re behaving well.

    What is encouraging, the state officials are acting on their own behalf, not listening to Trump make up his mind (whatever is left of it) and trying to ignore Pence praying the Whitehouse right into an epidemic, and while it will get worse, I think people who survive will come out of it okay. Maybe feeling a bit better about themselves and their state government.

    Our main concern at this point is kids on spring break and older people coming back from Florida. yikes. The only scary thing I’ve seen so far is the lt. governor of Texas suggesting that older people should be willing (yes, willing) to die for the healthy of the country and their grandchildren. That reminds me uncomfortably of too many SF stories about selected people being exterminated to make room for ‘better’ ones. What the good Lt. Governor forgot about, is all those truly wealthy people like Bill Gates and even our President, who are decidedly rich and decidedly elderly.

    And one last thought: people say that the death toll from this is lower than the flu, and EVERYONE gets the flu–but no one thinks that sentence all the way through: there are pneumonia shots, flu shots, and people trained in the handling of flu victims. Nor do people need special clothing, masks, or santitized surfaces to protect themselves. Corona spreads fast, and all you need to do is stand near a celing fan and you can spread it everywhere. And there are as yet no treatments, no flu shots, no pneumonia shots. Maybe next year. I think we’ll get through this. We tough; We diamond.

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    • Apparently the Monsters found an escape hatch and were running loose. However, for now, I’ve corralled them and your post is visible.

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  5. The coronavirus is not going to even approach the infections and deaths of H1N1. Yet, some of the same health experts never warned about H1N1 or other flus which kill far more than the coronavirus. Why not? So, why the extreme warnings for the coronavirus?

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    • The CDC estimates that the US death toll will likely be in the range of 200,000 to 1,700,000 — and given the generally poor state of our health-care system (only advanced nation with millions of uninsured, only advanced nation with no laws mandating paid sick leave for all workers, so that people in shit jobs have to come to work even when they’re sick) and the gross incompetence of the current leadership, the worst-case scenario is all too likely.

      For comparison, 1,700,000 is four times total US battle deaths in World War II.

      We may very well be on the brink of the worst disaster in all of American history.

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        • If you believe those stats, I’ve got some beachfront property in Nebraska I’d like to sell you. Here’s the latest info https://ktla.com/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-deaths-in-the-u-s-could-reach-peak-in-3-weeks-epidemiologist-estimates/ Doesn’t look like we’ll approach the 60 million infected by H1N1. Fact is, coronavirus is nothing more than a blip on the radar screen. Further, Obama was right to do nothing during the H1N1 pandemic.

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          • There are many differences between N1H1 and Covid-19. Probably the most important is that the R-nought value (how many others a carrier typically infects) for H1N1 was around 1.5; covid-19 is coming in around 2.5 – 3. The difference means H1N1 carrier in infection RATE was low and almost incremental; the Covid-19 infection rate is exponential. In the first 10 days of infection, by comparison, a carrier with N1H1 exhibited signs and symptoms within a day so after 10 days the total infection number was around 3,815; for Covid-19, a carrier could potentially be the cause of about 59,000 infections in the same time frame PLUS before the first sign or symptom appears. This is why medical officers have been screaming about self isolation, to keep the RATE of infection at the low end of the infection curve. And this is EXACTLY what Americans have not been doing widely, what many covidiots are not doing; they continue to believe physical distancing and washing hands is what works but that won’t come near to affecting the exponential infection RATE that is already well underway. The US death toll will dwarf the Chinese numbers.

            We’re talking about a pandemic never seen in history because it is spread so easily and infects so many in such a short period of time. But that’s not the problem. With H1N1, the death rate from complications was 1/20th the rate of complications from Covid-19. And that means hospitalizations. That’s why Cuomo is fuming mad about the unconscionable response from Washington because it means the hospitals of New York will be filled with bodies. Dead bodies. And that’s because the rate of complications translates into vast numbers of people who need treatment NOW, treatment that is unavailable to address such numbers. So doctors will have to pick and choose who to treat BY THE THOUSANDS.

            When the argument is put forth that Covid-19 is somehow typical or less than what has come before, you know you are dealing with misinformation. This one is really bad because in three months it will reshape the country… for better or worse. N1H1 did no such thing in spite of numbers that only appear to be equivalent because it was nowhere near as bad.

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          • Covid-19 is like letting loose one pingpong ball in a room full of mousetraps. It starts slowly, but by the end of a very short period every trap is sprung, in a kind of “me too’ scenario.

            The scary part is, with proper medication and inoculations it can be contained. But this one had no warning, and no support for testing. By the time it got here we were just beginning to test for it, and there were no anitbiotics to slow the spread down.

            The difference is, as I see it, with the flu we have flu shots, we have pneumonia shots, and not everyone gets the flu, even unprotected. We also have plenty of warning. Some people say too much, but Id rather be over prepared than underwarned. With Covid we had nothing on hand, not even enough masks, hospital beds, or isolated facilities. This thing takes off like a rocket, apparently, and it travels not just on your sneezes but all over your clothing, hands, hair. Even heating and cooling ducts will spread it.

            It seems like overreacting, but if you read about those spring breakers coming home to spread yet more of this thing…they figured they were immune because they were young. Wrong.

            I am filled with delight at seeing how people are reacting–staying home without being told to, opening up computer lines for people to work from home, laying people off but not cutting their supply lines. Yeah, it’s going to reshape this country, but I think in many ways, more positively. We are taking control of ourselves instead of waiting for the President to issue bulletins.

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          • In your analogy, each of us is a mousetrap and we don’t have to surround ourselves with dangerous traps that are springing and flinging… unless we work in healthcare. And that’s a consideration – front line health care workers – many people may not realize is of paramount concern: each case introduces our front line health care workers with just that much more risk and work. For those who might be unaware what working in an ICU is like, it’s stressful at the best of times because patients can crash instantly. Now reduce the number of staff per patient, make doctors harder to reach, eliminate almost any drug that can help, reduce the availability of helpful equipment, make infection easier by failing to provide sufficient protective wear, and increase the severity of the medical condition to make patient stability precarious, make staff choose who to care for and who will have to make it on their own, and the conditions are ripe for making this job not only as difficult as possible, every decision more important, but increasing the load of stress and exhaustion that results. If these are the working conditions for ICU staff at the front end of this pandemic, imagine facing months of this. So, in comparison, just how terrible is it for people to voluntarily self-isolate as much as possible even if that means losing income when suffering from none of these conditions?

            If people won’t self-isolate for themselves, they should do it out of respect and concern for our front line health care workers. That’s why so many countries get around to making this mandatory.

            Effective anti-virals for this strain of flu aren’t available yet. A vaccine is probably 18 months away. So we have very little to use in this fight but it starts and ends with testing. Next is the need for all individuals doing their part as best they can with hand washing, physical distancing, and self-isolation… while treatments like available ventilators and the basic protective equipment for front line health care workers must suffice.

            For those who hope to profit by hoarding this basic equipment and selling it at inflated prices, there is consideration by some State governors of copying Canada’s response, of making it a capital offence rather than merely a criminal offence subject to large fines and jail time. That shows how serious this is.

            Our Emergencies Act in Canada brought into effect during this national emergency dealing with the pandemic replaces the War Measures Act that suspends all civil liberties and gives the federal government great leeway in addressing pressing issues – and it was this legislation that was last used, in fact, by our current PM’s father to address the FLQ crisis in 1970 when Quebec nationalism became violent. (When a journalist asked Trudeau senior if he would actually implement this draconian legislation, Pierre Elliot Trudeau said, “Just watch me.” And he did. Over 30,000 Quebecers were detained at that time and the military put forces on alert and moved them to support police. Yes, Canadians are very nice and polite but we take our threats seriously and respond appropriately.) This legislation is the same thing, and it treats hoarders and profiteers with a harshness that is equivalent to high crimes during war, crimes like treason punishable by death. Again, this is very serious stuff, and the seriousness by which government addresses the pandemic directly results in lower rates of infection and death. Trump. Has. No. Clue. What. He. Has. Done. Wrong.

            So, for those businesses inflating prices to profit from basic health care products like hand sanitizers and wipes, a crime bill is being written here in Ontario to make this practice an indictable offence during the state of emergency, a crime which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years imprisonment. Just getting together with a few people now carries a minimum $750 fine, and people returning from the States but not going straight into an immediate 14 day isolation period but stopping first for some groceries or perhaps popping by to visit friends and/or family is a $10,000 fine and up to 2 years in prison. In other words, these measures are very serious measures, and are taken for very serious reasons. The primary reason is to have government do all it can with the tools at hand to support our front line health workers from people who are unaware or uncaring that their personal behaviour goes well beyond themselves and is a direct threat to the health and safety of others. In this matter, our federal government – with all federal party leaders working together to present one voice – has the support of over 90% of the population. And it’s working.

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        • Infidel,

          In the case of highly contagious, airborne viruses it is WAY MORE SAFE to err on the side of urgent caution/preparation than be the proverbial toad in the frying pan, huh? 😉 Especially now because ventilators and/or life-machines are near impossible to obtain if your lungs become heavily congested or failing… along with all the other side-effects of COVID-19. I mean, now and over the next 8 to 52 weeks(?) or more, once your are infected… you’re sh*t outta luck, particularly if you have other chronic health conditions.

          It’s bad now and it is going to get much, much worse as long as that “pandemic curve” keeps rising and people keep spreading false, ignorant information.

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          • Your error is presuming the number of deaths is lower than or equivalent to N1H1. The modeling for Covid-19 in the US is far, far greater than N1H1, and this is based on significant differences between the two that you don’t address… other than claiming to pay attention to these differences and understanding what these differences mean makes one “unsophisticated.” No it doesn’t. It demonstrates your ignorance, an ignorance that is in no way is justified by the article you link to. If you understood the real problem this Covid-19 virus presents, you would not claim the modeling is by a bunch of “bureaucrats” in such a sneering and dismissive tone… as if you know better when you most clearly do not. Although I’m not a modeling expert, I do understand the problem and so this modeling seems to match reality quite well. Because my spouse is heavily involved in the appropriate response to a viral pandemic for a health care facility, I do have access to Best Practices and a full understanding of what these are based on. So I recognize why every medical officer for every city, province and country in Canada are in full consensus about the very real danger this virus presents to every person and the necessary steps to reduce its harm. The danger is in the rate of infection and so the solution is to take measures now to shift infected people to the front end of the curve before we reach the exponential end. It is this success or failure to shift the rate that will determine the totals in preventable deaths and, so far, the US federal government is facilitating the worst case scenario mitigated only by state and local officials who are doing what they can to mitigate this idiocy.

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          • My spouse worked with SARS patients, MER patients, AIDS patients, C-Diff patients, Hep patients, and yes, 2 outbreaks of H1N1 tern years apart. My partner writes and reviews policies for pandemics now, which are part of every health care facility’s accreditation. I am steeped in this stuff.

            Already, more Canadians have died from Covid-19 than H1N1 in total and the pandemic is only starting here. Quebec is particularly worrisome. So I’m well aware of outbreaks and deadly viruses and the medical practices that deal with them. I’m not blowing smoke with Covid-19, chicagoja, nor do I have any other agenda than understanding why it is a vastly bigger problem for us than what has come before.

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          • So, 60 million people in the U.S. alone were infected with H1N1(vs. 69,000 coronavirus cases so far). By some accounts, 500,000 people died from H1N1 worldwide. Still, H1N1 did not shut any country down. All we have is a lot of projections thrown around that have yet to prove out. Actually, the numbers are running favorably with countries like China, South Korea and Japan reporting that things have greatly improved – even Italy seems to have peaked. Even the yearly, seasonal flu kills over 20,000 a year and yet coronavirus is treated as the worst pandemic of all time. Why? What are we going to do next year, or the year after, when the next pandemic hits? It’s tragic when diseases of this type hit, but there needs to be a rational response. You can’t just shut down business and bankrupt the nation – or can you?

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          • Chicagoja, the difference, as I keep saying, is being infectious without any signs or symptoms for a longer period of time, the higher rate of transmission, the higher rate of fatality, the shorter period of time where a percentage of people require immediate hospitalization with pneumonia-like conditions, and overwhelming the medical system. H1N1 was not like this and so was not an equivalent threat. That’s why total numbers alone from previous pandemics for comparison do not tell the story because we are nowhere near getting the total numbers from Covid-19. So much depends on how populations respond and what general measures are taken. Notice, for example, that Italy’s death rate was more than double China’s. Why? What’s the difference? Notice how the US death rate is greater than Italy’s. Why? What measures are NOT being taken compared with other countries? Again, H1N1 did not face these immediate challenges to public policies and so the response was entirely different… and appropriately so. We have no equivalent Tami flu for medical systems to stockpile and use for Covid-19. And so on.

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          • All very well stated Tildeb and your awareness and education of microbiology, epidemiology, etc, are accurate throughout. As I’ve mentioned (indirectly) to you before, it is utterly mind-boggling how over the last 2-3 decades North America—perhaps several other regions & continents too—are seeing a Death of Expertise and Intellectualism from the advanced sciences. As I mentioned on a comment somewhere else recently, if I may Nan, why this recent decay and dismantling of our great institutions of science and advance education? …

            Professionals, especially, tend to point to the Internet as the culprit when faced with clients and customers who think they know better. As we’ll see, that’s not entirely wrong, but it is also too simple an explanation. Attacks on established knowledge have a long pedigree, and the Internet is only the most recent tool in a recurring problem that in the past misused television, radio, the printing press, and other innovations the same way. […]

            Universal education, the greater empowerment of women and minorities, the growth of a middle class, and increased social mobility all threw a minority minority of experts and the majority of citizens into direct contact, after nearly two centuries in which they rarely had to interact with each other. And yet the result has not been a greater respect for knowledge, but the growth of an irrational conviction among Americans that everyone is as smart as everyone else. This is the opposite of education, which should aim to make people, no matter how smart or accomplished they are, learners for the rest of their lives. […]

            And some of us, as indelicate as it might be to say it, are not intelligent enough to know when we’re wrong, no matter how good our intentions. Just as we are not all equally able to carry a tune or draw a straight line, many people simply cannot recognize the gaps in their own knowledge or understand their own inability to construct a logical argument.
            — Nichols, Tom. The Death of Expertise (p. 6-8). Oxford University Press.

            And this is just the tip of the iceberg of our horrific problem for modern progressive civilizations and species evolution. 😔

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          • Thanks, Prof. I wish I weren’t steeped in this stuff but hey, it’s reality. What I’ve learned is that NOT respecting reality has its drawbacks, apparently. Who knew?

            The response to the pandemic is merely another extension, another example, of why belief in belief – aka trusting in some faith-based belief rather than evidence-adduced belief – is not knowledge no matter how nicely it’s dressed up to be and, more importantly, is always pernicious. Faith-based belief is never to be trusted not because I say so or you say so or some academic says so but because trusting in it can kill you out of ignorance and cause massive harm to real people in real life unnecessarily.

            Education means different things to different people but stripped down to its most basic understanding means learning how to better understand and respect reality. That product is called knowledge and it is widely available. But if some method of thinking and lending of confidence and trust doesn’t do at least that much as a bare minimum, then it ain’t education and what’s being said ain’t knowledge. With all this schooling, we should learn to recognize the difference when we encounter it. And that’s why highly knowledgeable people deserve to be listened to, deserve to be given the benefit of the doubt when they seem to say something that causes a frown of disagreement, and presumed to be worth a second look, a more significant amount of consideration.

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          • Hear hear! (raises his glass of fine Camus XO Borderies Cognac) 🥃

            There are many quotes I could share from Socrates, but perhaps these two will have to do on these subjects…

            Nature has given us two ears, two eyes, and but one tongue-to the end that we should hear and see more than we speak.

            True wisdom comes to each of us when we realize how little we understand about life, ourselves, and the world around us.

            IOW, on that last quote, always be a learner, a student your entire life. And that DOESN’T mean a student of one or two subjects/disciplines—like the Holy Bible, or Mosques/Churches, or video-gaming—but humbly and broadly learned and learning from THE experts of those fields/disciplines.

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  6. Lots of liberals have guns too. And lots more should. If the country seems to be moving towards the situation you describe, more people who were prepared will start realizing they need to be ready to defend themselves. Maybe they already are, which would account for part of the recent spike in sales.

    (The Trumpanzees be disappointed if they raided me. I don’t think many of them are into tea and vegetarian food.)

    Remember, though, that our kind of people tend to live in big cities which have (a) a more effective and organized police presence than rural areas, and (b) lots of near neighbors who can watch out for each other and get together to fight back if need be. So there’s that.

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  7. My neighborhood is a suburban Republican stronghold, though they voted Democratic in 2018. But it seems reasonably sane, and people are practicing social distancing.

    I expect it will be worse in places where there are many rural hicks. But I am doubting that a serious civil war will break out, though there could be violent episodes in some places.

    I’m going to keep calm, and monitor what is happening.

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  8. As I posted on your Part 1 post Nan:

    Just watched a PBS Newshour that stated from an interview with the Gov. of Louisiana that just in New Orleans alone—Marde Gras crowds as well as snail’s pace preparation across the board & on all levels by state and federal authorities—that yesterday their infections increased way over 400!!!!! IN ONE DAY!!!! 😲

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    • Also remember that the 400 is only a tiny portion of those currently infected, a portion that has moved into Day 10 where signs and symptoms only FIRST appear, which is when testing STARTS! There’s a very good chance this 400 represents way less than 1% of those currently infected. Extrapolate outwards and you begin to see why the rate of infection plotted on an exponential curve is the REAL problem that needs addressing and not the washing of hands. So the solution is isolation by the entire population to break the human highway of infection… or as near as is humanly possible so that the rate remains low and the 3.5-4% of those infected who develop severe symptoms can be medically treated. For example, Cuomo calling for 40,000 ventilators means that 40,000 is about 3.5-4% of those already well past Day 10. Extrapolate the numbers and you see those ventilators are needed for an infected population of only 1.2 million infected. We know, however, that this virus will infect about 60-65% of an exposed population. So how many ventilators will be needed for, say, the state of New York with 20 million people? Do the math: 12-13 million people infected, of which, say 3.5% need ventilators, we have 420,000 people needing ventilators, which can be reused. So how long are such patients typically on ventilators? This is the point: the more people who need such assistance at one time will overwhelm the system, which is why it is our civic duty to spread that need over time and this is accomplished ONLY by self-isolation. If not, that means lots and lots of people dying for a lack of medical assistance.

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      • Tildeb, yes you are spot on. You’ve spelled it out quite well. 😉 Epidemiologists along with their statistical analysts, other mathematicians, biological and social scientists, etc, along with all the historical records and research data we’ve collected since the 16th century, particularly the last 150-years, it is safe to say they KNOW what tha hell they’re doing and talking about, huh?

        I like Rachel Maddow’s excellent idea/suggestion for Americans…

        If Trump is going to keep lying like he has been every day on stuff this important, we should, all of us, stop broadcasting it. Honestly, it’s going to cost lives.

        Unless I am mistaken, the state of Washington(?) or the Seattle area(?) has stopped airing the President’s live broadcasts. He simply spews out way too much bogus information and blatant lies… that do indeed “cost lives!”

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        • Last I heard, it was a PBS station that cut away after broadcasting what amounts to what Trumps seems to treat as a media scrum rally audience.

          Maddow is right: listen to medical officers and not self-aggrandizing, partisan, and maliciously stupid politicians. Stick to medical opinion and you’ll be much better off in planning your own response.

          Cruel as it is to say, and said with regret, is that perhaps the loss in life by many of Trump’s base and Tea Partiers who place their misguided trust in their Dear Leader’s medical expertise – aka profound medical ignorance – will turn out to be the difference maker in the next presidential election.

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    • You have to remember it’s temporary, JD.

      Self isolation works and this pulse of the virus (there are usually 3 pulses) will be greatly reduced in about 2-3 months if little continues to be done by the US government. This time could be much shorter if the entire civilian population were to go into self imposed isolation. If that were done, then we’d be looking at about 3 weeks. It’s a demonstration of Trump’s idiocy to say stuff and take measures that will produce the longest possible recovery time in the name of quickening the recovery time!

      The same virus will surge again in late September/early October requiring the same self isolation for the shortest period of time and again the following spring of 2021. If we get really lucky, a vaccine (which treats the cause) might be available for next spring’s surge and we can put this virus behind us. In the meantime, we can reasonably expect a new batch of anti-viral medication (which treats symptoms) for the fall so the open question is how long will the current pulse last and how many lives will be lost to it. You can easily protect yourself by self isolating but the other factors in doing so play a very great part in making this happen.

      In Canada, for example, every person is eligible for an insurance payout of about $2000 for a 3 month period that begins to be deposited in the first week of April. As well, mortgage payments have been suspended for the same period, local, provincial, and federal taxes have been deferred, home electricity and gas fees have been shifted forward by 3 months, businesses given bailouts on the condition they maintain positions for their absent staff, business ordered closed (with exemptions), parks and playgrounds fenced off, and so on. Every level of government is supporting a cohesive national plan of action to self-isolate and the spokespeople who follow every political announcement are Medical Officers explaining why these orders are necessary and how we can know if they are working as intended. That’s why I say I am very fortunate to be Canadian because I think every level of government has done well by every Canadian. I think we will come through this danger as quickly as possible with the least amount of disruption and harm… as far as we as a people are able. But I worry that with so much essential trade necessary with the US, and so little done by the US federal government and many of its states to protect its citizens while urging actions diametrically opposed to best medical practices, this outbreak will cause much more harm than it should.

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      • Seniors are getting nothing extra in Canada, tildeb. Just want to correct your omission. Most of us are on fixed incomes. We just hope those incomes are not interrupted, or our deathrates will soar WITHOUT EVEN CONTRACTING THE VIRUS!

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        • Seniors in my neck of the woods get preferential treatment regarding shopping, with stores cleaned overnight to dedicate an hour prior to public opening for them. Because seniors receive regular pension already and nothing has changed in their income, they do not have to go to zero income as so many younger people do, so the policy changes aimed at addressing the changes really should not need to do anything for these seniors. That seems reasonable to me.

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          • I was merely commenting on you saying “everyone” could get that $2000 a month, and wanted to clarify.
            As for preferential treatment, going grocery shopping between 7 AM and 8 AM as we are being offered is not what I call preferential, but cruel and unusual. No thanks.

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          • Cardigan, you got a bad idea of who seniors are. I’ll wear my sandals, shorts, and teie-died hippie tees. And the available dating pool is only interesting if you are looking.

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      • As I said, we must each decide just how much we value our own life, and what constitutes life. To me … the jury is still out. I am disgusted by most of what I see of ‘humanity’ these days, and I truly believe that our government intends to use this crisis to further their own power, perhaps even cancel or postpone November’s election. That is unthinkable and would be the straw that broke the camel’s back.

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        • True. Of course, there’s much more detail but the point is that there is widespread action by all levels of government to try to mitigate the economic impact of a shut down. That’s really important.

          Next up is credit cards, and the first issue is tackling the high interest rates with them when laid off workers turn to them for producing much needed purchasing power. This is an ongoing negotiation with the banks that issue them as the cash cows they are, but remember, in Canada it’s the banks that set the level of the amount of money the federal government can print, so it’s very tricky (again that’s massive simplification). I think the principle at work is what’s important, that offsetting immediate payments for everyday people in many ways is all to the good but no one who is reasonably sane expects a free ride but sure could use a as wide a deferment as possible relative to the immediate loss of income. I also know rent is a particularly thorny problem to mitigate, especially in places like Toronto and Vancouver. If nothing else, I think it becomes pretty obvious to everyone how so many of the lowest paid workers – like grocery store workers, for example – turn out to be the core engine that keeps all the country’s essential services able to keep going. Have you thanked your local grocery clerk yet? We all should but turn that thanks into support when contracts are renegotiated in better times and be prepared to pay slightly more for our groceries. It’s a pretty good trade off.

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      • Yes, that’s a very important message that should have altered Spring Break revelers in Florida or made Mardi Gras celebrations verboten. One hopes people self-isolate for their own benefit but the threat to others for those who do not cannot be overstated and so government restrictions will emerge from – everything from cancelling the Summer Olympics to a mass lock down like happened in China. The threat, although temporary and relatively mild for the mass majority of people who will be infected, is very real for those unable to receive necessary medical treatment due to the system being overwhelmed. I suspect we’ll see in the aftermath that governments able to implement proactive restrictions had populations that fared far better than governments who did not take this threat seriously enough and reacted to rising numbers of contagion.

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    • It’s not a sacrifice, you get to turn inwards, watch the sun come up, read all those books you’ve been intending to read, sort things out in your sock drawer, if necessary.
      Take up bird watching, or knitting or something you’ve been meaning to do but never got to. I’ve started weaving again. =)

      The sacrifices are worth it, if we survive intact. It’s only a few months, if that. It would be less if we had more support from our fearless leader, and fewer people insisting that THEY are immune, THEY can take it, yeah, and then infect 100 people in a single day.

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  10. Yeah, after reading your posts, Nan, and the comments, I’m even more afraid and uncertain than I was before. There’s the potential here for so much harm to come to society on many fronts. I’ve an uneasy, sick feeling in the pit of my stomach from all of this.

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    • I hope those symptoms are not Covid-19!

      I think it’s the correct response to be uncertain and afraid in such times rather than full of denial and bluster. But you – like almost all of your compatriots when push comes to shove, I think – will rise to meet the challenge as best you can because you have to. If there is a sliver lining, such events usually end up pulling people together in common cause. For countries currently divided in so many ways by bickering over partisanship, this shared experience that crosses all other social boundaries may help people realize how much we have in common with each other regardless of these much more trivial differences. And this, too, is a very important lesson and provides reason to feel hopeful.

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  11. Give me toilet paper or give me death!

    (They are just fearful and fearful people do stupid things like pray, instead of taking precations (something that actually works) and the stock up on ammunition because … “Obama is coming for their TP!”)

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  12. Wow, Nan. You sure know how to stoke up the fire. LOL. I have nothing to add to all of this.
    I don’t know whether to be depressed, get drunk, or run through the streets naked.
    I would say something about stereotyping, but I don’t want to create any fire storms. 🙂 Be safe.

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  13. The number of confirmed infections in the US has gone from nine thousand a week ago to eighty-two thousand now — a nine-fold increase in one week. Where will it be a month from now? Obviously the growth rate will flatten out somewhat as the populations that have been practicing social distancing are less vulnerable, but much of the dumber and less-informed Trumpanzee population is still refusing to take the threat seriously or take precautions, and the virus will continue to rampage unchecked among them.

    On the positive side, my sense from my own shopping trips is that the supply situation in stores is slowly getting back more to normal. I guess they’re adjusting to keeping high-demand items in stock. So one can hope that we’ll be able to fend off the kind of Mad Max “your toilet paper or your life” scenario Nan envisages.

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  14. Just something to think about …

    As of March 27th, the New York Times reports: …at least 93,568 people across every state, plus Washington, D.C., and three U.S. territories, have tested positive for the coronavirus … and at least 1,433 patients with the virus have died.

    It should be noted that the first case of the coronavirus in the U.S. was reported in January 2020.

    By contrast, the H1N1 pandemic was first detected in April 2009. The final estimate of deaths by the CDC in April 2010 was 12,469.

    It appears we’re catching up. And fast.

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    • With 20,000 new cases in the US on March 28 and the number of killed over 2600, hot spots with exponential growth in infection are just starting up in other parts of the country, meaning what we see now unfolding is the front edge of this event. It is going to get much worse before the number of new cases begins to decline nationally – optimistically, in about a month’s time. I predict the death toll from Covid-19 in the US will dwarf H1N1. And I say that because the different government responses plays a critical role: the US rate of infection and transmission is over 50 times greater than in neighbouring Canada. The only difference, really, is how our governments have responded.

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      • The only difference, really, is how our governments have responded.

        You nailed it! Competence (and intelligence) vs. Pure Ineptitude.

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        • Not according to Brazil’s Trump-wannabe Bolsonaro; government spending money and recommending physical distancing and closing public venues is really the very worst thing ever because, well, because Trump.

          Now there’s an air tight argument.

          This is what happens when facts and reality don’t carry much weight in an ideological framework under which public policies must operate. And when the inevitable result of increased numbers of dead bodies are placed at the feet of such people, they’ll blame someone else. They always do.

          Wouldn’t it be something if a vast majority of people stopped granting power to such ideologues? Maybe thjis pandemic will have such an effect. But that recognition has got to start somewhere, and start with each of us, by recognizing the thinking that replaces facts and reality with an ideology, with an ideological partisan agenda.

          Many of us are getting pretty good at seeing this rotten ideology in action with religious belief and calling it out when we see it, but we have to start recognizing the same thinking in all arenas of the public domain. It is so harmful and in so many ways.

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  15. Just a quick note: over half of Covid-19 patients report a loss of their sense of smell after symptoms appear. A recent report has this loss of ability to smell occurring prior to the onset of of symptoms. So it appears that people a-symptomatic but positive for Covid-19 have already lost their sense of smell 3 days prior to the first symptoms appearing and so there is a report suggesting the loss of smell can be used by anyone as an indicator of Covid-19 infection. Remember, people can be infectious for up to an average of 14 days before the first symptoms appear, so any signs like a loss of smell can only help to alert people they may be positive.

    Of course, with everyone following medical advice, primarily of always keeping a 2 meter (~6ft) physical distancing and the dedicated washing of hands before touching eyes, nose, or anything going into the mouth, we can stop runaway transmission, keep the numbers low, and allow our health care system to work its magic. But infection will still occur and so this kind of symptom helps. Keep checking your sniffer!

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    • Just now read this myself. I knew that loss of smell and taste were sometimes experienced when one is infected, but losing sense of smell prior to diagnosis is definitely something to pay attention to. Thanks for sharing.

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