Who Will Win?

As many of my “regulars” have discovered, I tend to share various articles and comments that I find interesting, timely, upsetting … or even questionable.

And here I am doing it again. 😎

I’m not a regular reader or participant of Quora, but I do get daily emails that include a listing of topics in which I’ve indicated an interest. Of course politics is one of them. 😉

Anyway, in today’s listing was the following question:  “Who will win the United States presidential 2020 election?” Naturally, no one can provide an irrefutable answer but I found the response provided by a person named Spencer Alexander McDaniel was worth thinking about so I’ve copied his answer here.

I think that it is impossible to say with any degree of certainty who will win 2020 United States presidential election at this point, but I predict that, regardless of who ultimately wins, the election will be extremely close. I do not think that anyone is going to win anything resembling a landslide victory and I think that the result of the election will come down to a small handful of important swing states.

I think it is entirely possible that we may see essentially a repeat of the 2016 election in which the Democratic candidate wins the popular vote and Donald Trump wins the electoral college. I am not saying that is what will happen, but I do think it is a possibility.

Donald Trump has four massive advantages that give him a huge edge over anyone who tries to confront him:

  • Trump is an incumbent. There is a very strong established tendency for Americans to favor incumbents over challengers. The last time an incumbent president lost a bid for reelection was in 1992 when Bill Clinton defeated incumbent president George H. W. Bush. That was twenty-seven years ago. If the Democratic challenger defeats Donald Trump in the 2020 election, it will quite literally be an event that has not happened in over a generation.
  • The economy has not crashed (or at least not yet). Many independents decide who to vote for based solely on the economy. Since the economy is doing ok right now, that means Trump is pretty much guaranteed to win votes from people who vote based solely on the economy.
  • Trump is a Republican. The way our political system works gives a massively disproportionate advantage to Republicans in the electoral college. Because Democrats tend to live in cities and Republicans tend to live in rural areas and the electoral college tends to give greater power to predominately rural states with low populations, Republicans naturally have an advantage over Democrats automatically.
  • Trump has the extraordinarily effective full-time propaganda juggernaut that is Fox News to back him up. Fox News can spin any news story to make Trump look good. Since most conservatives only get their news from Fox, no matter what Trump says or does, they will always think well of him. Even if you don’t watch Fox yourself, Fox still has massive influence over the news stories you are exposed to, because mainstream news outlets feel pressure to cover the stories that Fox News is covering, even if they are not really newsworthy, just because Fox is covering those stories and mainstream news outlets are worried that they will look “biased” if they do not cover them.

If Donald Trump were any normal president with these advantages, he would easily win the 2020 election, perhaps with even a landslide victory. Donald Trump, however, is not any normal president; he keeps saying and doing unbelievably stupid and immoral things and he has record-low approval ratings.

ABOVE: Photograph of our grouchy orange president, bloviating as usual

I think that, regardless of who the Democratic candidate ultimately ends up being, they will probably have a chance at beating Donald Trump. Nevertheless, beating Trump will certainly not be easy by any means. The Democratic candidate will have to put on an extremely good campaign and they will have to be able to successfully present themself as a reasonable, intelligent, and moderate antidote to Trump’s swirling cyclone of chaos, stupidity, and right-wing radicalism.

Obviously, this will be an extremely challenging thing for any candidate to do, especially since Fox News is guaranteed to vilify whoever it is that gets the Democratic nomination as the Antichrist and the illegitimate spawn of Satan and Stalin. Naturally, Fox News’s hysterical calumnies will make it into the mainstream press and greatly shape public opinion of the Democratic candidate so that even many moderates who hate Trump will be convinced that he is the lesser of two evils.

Overall, I think that, at this point, the chances of Donald Trump winning and the chances of the Democratic candidate winning are split roughly even. The election really could go either way. On the one hand, Trump has huge advantages over all the Democratic frontrunners, but, on the other hand, he is—quite frankly—a semi-literate, delusional, narcissistic buffoon with no moral compass who somehow always manages to turn even what should be a triumphant moment for himself into a humiliation.

Personally, my favorite candidate is Pete Buttigieg, who seems to me like not only the exact opposite of Trump but also like someone who would at least stand a decent chance against Trump. Nonetheless, I am all too aware that my own affinity towards him may be just because I happen to be a young, white male, moderate liberal from northern Indiana with intellectual predilections and a deep love for arts and literature. Thus, consequently, Buttigieg reminds me quite a bit of myself. I recognize that, if I came from a different background, I might not find him so appealing.

And, yes, I know lots of people have an intense and mostly irrational antipathy towards Buttigieg and I’m sure people will hate me too for even saying I like him, but, personally, I think he is the best candidate out of the mix. I will admit that don’t honestly expect him to get the Democratic nomination, even though I think he would make a good general election candidate. Ultimately, I’ll end up voting for whoever the Democratic candidate is in the general election, but, right now, he’s the one I’m planning on voting for in the primary.

ABOVE: Photograph of Pete Buttigieg. Look, I know lots of people hate him, but, right now, he’s who I’m planning on voting for in the primary.

NOTE: Normally, I would have simply linked to the answer but as I said, I’m not much of a Quora user so this is the best I could do.

P.S. I’m also a fan of Pete. 😊

34 thoughts on “Who Will Win?

  1. what truly alarms me, people either hate the man or worship him, and those that worship at his feet will forgive, ignore, or just emcourage the idiocy he espouses. Mass hypnosis, it’s gotta be.

    If you think back to baby Bush and Clinton, I suspect Clinton won because Bush was such a war monger, and then wouldn’t let go of it. WMD, indeed. Red alerts and Orange alerts. I said to one man, online, the day he insists that the army wears jackboots and salute him as they goosestep past the podium is the day i leave for Canada. He agreed. And this is Baby Bush in spades. That’s the only thing that gives me hope. Maybe people will get just weary enough of his attitude, his preening, his nonsense, and give him a pass.
    When you compare him to Buttgieg (god, what a name) or even Biden, he pales in comparison.

    Liked by 3 people

  2. When I see Mitch McConnell literally getting away with pulling off a sham trial, and it appears he will, and I see Trump getting away with his destruction of democracy, which he’s doing with impunity, I cannot be overly optimistic about 2020. I’m not so sure that if he doesn’t win, he will stage a successful coup–refuse to leave the white house and have McConnell, Graham, Jordan, and Nunes and the whole military backing him up all the way.

    The only hope I have is that enough people will go out and vote and this time clean the Senate of the cowardly Republicans, so if Trump does win then a Democratic House and Senate will impeach him, again, try him with an honest trial, and remove him from office, forcibly if necessary.

    If both the senate and congress are controlled by Democrats then they can get Trump’s tax returns along with witnesses and all the documentation necessary to finally, once and for all, show the world inextricably crooked and evil he is.

    I don’t know. Right now I’m so mad after watching Trump walk through that lit door to “address the nation” as if he were a fucking god. It was too much.

    Liked by 4 people

  3. My bet is on trump unless he goes completely off the rails before Nov….like straight jacket off the rails.
    We must be living in someone’s weird computer simulation…


    • There’s been much discussion related to his mental state. Some have pointed out several signs and believe they are becoming more and more obvious. -IF- this is taken to its conclusion, MAYBE he’ll do something so totally bizarre that even his Senate supporters will have to admit “something” is amiss.

      Of course whether or not they’ll actually do something remains to be seen. After all, they continue to “cover for him” even through the current fiasco. Nevertheless, it could happen … and hope springs eternal.

      Liked by 1 person

  4. Thanks for posting a great Quora perspective. PS – I’m a Quoraholic, (named Top Writer several years running and now paid for my content) Quora fascinates me, in no small part due to the wealth of often sobering perspectives.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Being Canadian, I cannot even prophecize who might win your election. But I can foresee Trump refusing to go, especially if he wins either the Senate or Congress. And that could result in a Second Civil War, or a number of States seceding from the Union. (Let’s hope for the latter, I do not want to see the rivers running red with blood!)
    Meanwhile, to taxpayers, demand that your tax money be used to protect the environment, service social problems, and keep your borders open to all immigrants. Free health care for all, free pharmacare, etc. Whatever else that needs doing for the people,not for the 1%.

    Liked by 2 people

    • rawgod, this is not the first time I’ve considered that. I honestly can see him clutching that desk top and shouting, ‘this is fake news! this is phoney baloney! I never heard of impeachment what is that it sounds like fruit that went bad and get your HANDS off me, mister, or Ill call out the army and have you demoted I am the president and you cannot take my desk away from me i love my desk i really love my desk and the pen holder and the blotter…”


  6. It’s prudent to keep in mind that defeating Trump won’t be easy. Overconfidence was part of the problem in 2016. I believe Trump is so toxic that the Democrat will have the advantage — the polling data supports that — but we must always fight as if we’re the underdogs and every vote is vital, no matter what we actually believe about the situation.

    I’ll vote for whoever gets our nomination, but Buttigieg would definitely not be my choice. The biggest issue is his unpopularity with black voters, who are the biggest part of our party base — we can’t win in November without them. And it bothers me that he talks about his religion so much. In doing that, he’s trying to appeal to an element of the population which is (a) irrevocably Republican and (b) dwindling year by year.

    Trump has been almost superhumanly lucky. The Obama economic recovery was so strong that even his tariff wars haven’t derailed it, though they’re damaging the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. He almost started a war with Iran, which was averted because the Iranian theocracy realized that what he was doing was basically a domestic campaign stunt and de-escalated (yes, the murderous Middle Eastern religious fanatics were the adult in the room — Trump has brought us that low). But throwing firecracker after firecracker into various tinderboxes and having each one just fizzle out isn’t the kind of luck that tends to hold. We need to be prepared for some game-changing disaster between now and the election.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Your concerns about Buttigieg are valid. Others have expressed similar reservations. One concern that many also have is his inexperience. But Obama was inexperienced … although yes, he had the advantage of the black vote.

      As I watch the candidates during the debates, there’s one thing I often think about. How would this person fare on the debate stage against Trump? I think Pete could hold his own. In any event, chances are we’ll never find out as he still has a ways to go to overcome Biden and Sanders … and Warren.

      We need to be prepared for some game-changing disaster between now and the election. See my comment to Mary. Unlikely, I admit, but possible.


  7. Right now my husband in the other room is listening, galvanized, as Trump gives one of his rallies, complete with a packed house, flags all over the place, a great deal of shouting and posturings, and roars of approval. I have ear plugs in, its the only way I can deal with it.
    It reminds me of the old gospel chant-and-response method of speechifying.

    I don’t want to know what he’s saying, but im sure at some point (oh he hit a cheer button there) I’ll find out on the news…he’s used the words “my fellow Americans’ at least nine hundred times, and “islamic Terrorists” at least 20. Both get cheers.

    Oh good, now they’re chanting.

    Liked by 1 person

    • My other-half HATES Trump … BUT he’s a Republican pretty much through and through so no matter what I say (which is never positive) about Trump, he has a come-back. “Yeah, well (insert name of Democrat) did this!”

      What frosts me (among other things) is that Trump goes on these campaign rallies — and you KNOW Secret Service has to go along — and WE are paying for all of it. I’m assuming campaign dollars are paying for all the other stuff, but even so …


  8. Well, just to weigh in in general…My own political views are a mix. I took one of the tests on the internet awhile back and was rated as a progressive libertarian.. What happens when you don’t fully have real confidence in any candidate?

    It also strikes me that there are really, really good people on just about every side of these issues. Recently, my husband and I had lunch with a wonderful couple from our church. There were considerable to the left of us on certain issues. In others, we agreed.

    Folks, in the mainline denominations, many, many people are quite progressive politically. As a matter of fact, probably the majority, by a slim margin, would vote for a democratic candidate. The clergy tend to be extremely progressive politically. For some reason, it is the conservative evangelicals who get most of the press as being representative of the “Christians.”

    Anyway, I digress. How do we come to truth in some of these matters? I’m not an expert relating to foreign policy or the state of the climate? Depending on which news source we rely on, as well as the kind of books that we read, differing conclusions can be drawn?

    My friends and I agreed, that one of the best things that we can do is to try to examine a variety of sources coming from differing positions, and to do our best to have honest dialogue and sharing with each other.

    The real shame is how polarized our country is right now. It’s not enough to just assume that someone disagrees or may have another perspective. No, it has to be assumed that the person is automatically an enemy with malevolent motives.

    Liked by 1 person

    • You make some good points, Becky. And I tend to agree that the more liberal-thinking churches/Christians lean towards more progressive decisions/actions. But as you know, the (super-religious) evangelicals get all the press. And of course the fact that we have a couple of top people in this administration who are gung-ho religious conservatives — and who base their decisions and actions in light of their faith — makes it pretty difficult to ignore.

      The thing many of us keep going back to is this country was NOT founded on religion. The Constitution allows it but doesn’t enforce it. This is what so many believers can’t seem to wrap their heads around. And this is often why so many of us non-believers get riled up.

      Add to that the fact that many (so-called) Christians are much more prone to have that “malevolent motive” you mention. You read the blogs. The atheists rarely “attack” believers, but they very frequently are on the receiving end of insults and contempt. If more would conduct themselves as their savior instructed, there might be far less dissension in the world.


  9. it does put us, as atheists, in a defensive position; if you try to defend your belief (or preference) you get prayed at, shouted down, and treated as if you walked funny and had two heads.

    I think it might be, in many instances, a case of jealousy on their part, watching you or I sail through life without the expense, burden, and drama of a religion. Much like a mother with four little kids, watching you, unimpeded with babies, going to dances and out to dinner and having a WONDERFUL time at it. So she yells at you, like it’s your fault she has four kids and you don’t.

    There is a narcissist attitude, too. Someone once told me, if you want to know if someone is a narcissist, see how they phrase things. When they say, “You are so mean to people” or, “You don’t love me do you” turn it around, and you’ll see they’re saying those things about themselves. If my mother broke a dish it was “my fault” because I distracted her (from two rooms away, mind)…So I’d say if you hear a Christian telling you you’re going to go to hell hold the mirror up, and you’ll see they’re talking about themselves.

    I grew up Catholic, but in a small New England town you have friends without judging which church they go to. No one really cares. The only difference is, they go upstreet to church, and you go downstreet.

    Liked by 1 person

    • I loved your mother and 4 kids example! Only thing is believers have been convinced THEY have the “best life.” And it’s reinforced every week as they dutifully fill the pews of their local church. And you know what they say about repetition …


  10. The more I tune in to the Impeachment trial, the greater my opinion that Trump will become a lame duck President. The video clips are devastating. He cannot prevent himself with his inane tweets from letting his trial team serve him effectively. Although he will likely be acquitted, the more political damage and his Senate cronies will occur.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Hello Nan,

    I was a political science major for my undergrad. I didn’t specialize in presidential prophecy, but I’ve watched politics for years, sometimes obsessively. I will put my cards on the table and say that I lean more Republican than Democrat (because of the movement of the current Democratic Party left). I think Trump will win, but I am not certain. Here’s why.

    As your article points out, Trump is the incumbent. Incumbents since Reagan (aside from Bush 41) seem to have an electoral advantage. I told many people Clinton running in 2016 was a bad move on her part, because there was little way she was going to win. She assumed Trump was a particularly bad candidate or she could break the most recent historical trend, and she turned out to be wrong.

    The economy was also strong before the coronavirus. Unemployment had even dipped down to below 4%. Currently, it’s dropped down to around 10%, which means the economy is getting better. This point will probably help Trump, but voters can be fickle, so it’s possible Biden could take advantage of the economy, though Biden campaign messaging suggests that attacking Trump for causing the economy to crash isn’t polling well, because it’s not a line of attack he’s very forcefully.

    Trump having some sort of “propaganda” wing isn’t really that relevant. The mainstream media is actively opposed to him, and more people generally consume mainstream media (for now) than they do a lot of alternative media. This is more of a liberal argument than an objective analysis. Claiming people will vote for Trump and help him win because they are brainwashed by Fox news seems far fetched.

    Trump also has a broader coalition of voters than Biden does. Trump is going to get the Christian vote, the vet vote, the business community, those with a high school degree, probably libertarians, and even higher percentages of Hispanics and African Americans than people think. On the other hand, Biden’s coalition is the Democratic base plus maybe the working class. The working class is where the fight is going to be because their numbers are so large.

    When it comes to the polls, they may not reflect Trump support, at least when it comes to likely voters. The polls in 2016 showed Clinton demolishing Trump, and the polls now show Biden demolishing Trump. People are lying to pollsters because they are afraid of liberal backlash. Polling evidence needs to be used modestly.

    Finally, I think cancel culture and the months of rioting is a clear advantage for Trump. Even people who lean left still believe in basic order in a society, and they don’t believe in burning down businesses or shooting cops in the street, even if they think the criminal justice system isn’t perfect. Biden has been tepid in his condemnation of the violent (not referring to peaceful here, because there are many peaceful ones) protests. Biden’s slow footed response to condemn the rioting makes him look like he could be courting violent elements of society for votes.

    The advantage Joe Biden does have is name recognition, a more likeable personality, and the coronavirus. Many people know “Uncle Joe.” Biden is generally pleasant in interviews (though there are reasons to suspect his public persona is not who he actually is). Polling also seems to suggest that he outpolls Trump on the coronavirus.

    At the end, the coronavirus is really the only thing that could help Biden, in my opinion. If people vote based on general trends, Biden is looking at a bad night. If people vote based on the coronavirus + the other stuff, the election is up for grabs.

    Of course, all of this is political forecasting. We will all find out what happens on election night.


    • Sooner, thanks for stopping by and offering your thoughts.

      I agree the two presidential candidates may not be the best this nation can offer, but quite frankly, I feel the one that currently holds the office has done more to divide this nation than any president before him.

      Difference in “politics” in one thing. But when it involves deriding and insulting personalities (at home and abroad), along with steamrolling personal opinion over those who have FAR more knowledge and experience, plus running the government based on personal biases … well, for me the choice is clear.

      Liked by 1 person

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